11406 Dunloring Pl

Kettering, MD 20774

$276,000D

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,557/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax + insurance: −$591
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,423/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $77,280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $276k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#185 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 407 students, 76% FRL); Kettering Middle (math 6% / reading 27%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 915 students, 61% FRL); Largo High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #162 of 222 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $276k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.