11406 Dunloring Pl · Kettering, MD 20774

$276,000

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1989 1,875 sqft lot $183/sqft · 14% below area Est $319k · 14% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH ONLY. NO FINANCING. MUST SUBMIT ROOF OF FUNDS WITH OFFER. YOU ARE PURCHASING THIS PROPERTY WITH OCCUPANT IN PLACE. PROPERTY WILL NOT BE VACANT AT SETTLEMENT. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANT. NO SHOWINGS. You will be purchasing this property sight unseen. ROOM COUNT IS APPROXIMATE AND TAKEN FROM OLD MLS LISTING. No financing contingencies. No CONTINGENCIES for ANYTHING. CASH ONLY. You will not get access to the property prior to settlement and property will not be vacant at settlement. SOLD STRICTLY AS IS WITH NO REPAIRS, WARRANTIES OR VIEWINGS. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANTS. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANTS. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANTS.

Key facts

• $100 HOA
• Built 1989
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $100 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service; Electric power
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Located outside city limits
• Construction: Frame construction with brick front; Slab foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Off-street parking

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Improved basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#185 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 407 students, 76% FRL); Kettering Middle (math 6% / reading 27%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 915 students, 61% FRL); Largo High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #162 of 222 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $276k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,052 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,358
• List price: $276,000
• Delta: -13.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 Dunloring Ct	0.13mi	2/2.5	1,398 (-7%)	16mo	$350,000	$250	64
907 Dunloring Ct	0.13mi	2/2.5	1,356 (-10%)	11mo	$350,000	$258	64
937 Dunloring Ct	0.20mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,372 (-9%)	12mo	$400,000	$292	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,206
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-34,511
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20774

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,557 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,715/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,707

Max offer price $255,052

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-40	+0% $-119	+5% $-197	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-220	+0% $-119	+5% $-18	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-48	base $-119	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Azalea Ct Unit 21-1 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,997	$1.83	45d	1	0.63mi
159 Azalea Ct Unit 21-2 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1197	$3,100	$2.59	45d	1	0.63mi
11433 Abbottswood Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	1.5	1137	$2,100	$1.85	14d	1	0.77mi
11215 Joyceton Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	1.5	1120	$2,400	$2.14	45d	1	0.82mi
1001 Treeland Way #501 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1570	$2,700	$1.72	26d	1	0.83mi
695 Mount Lubentia Ct W Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,700	$1.41	45d	1	0.87mi
11109 Joyceton Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	1.0	3.0	1472	$650	$0.44	45d	1	0.88mi
12250 Open View Ln #811 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1570	$2,625	$1.67	45d	1	0.88mi
214 Castleton Ter Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1478	$2,650	$1.79	45d	1	0.89mi
901 Pine Forest Ln Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1777	$2,750	$1.55	20d	1	0.95mi
728 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.0	1652	$3,190	$1.93	45d	1	0.97mi
737 Parev Way Unit 1 Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	2112	$3,300	$1.56	13d	1	0.98mi
735 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1640	$3,150	$1.92	45d	1	0.98mi
11240 Kettering Pl Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	1.5	1160	$2,200	$1.90	20d	1	1.01mi
702 Anoosh Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1452	$3,000	$2.07	45d	1	1.06mi
10477 Campus Way S Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.5	1420	$2,950	$2.08	26d	1	1.14mi
601 S Harry Truman Dr Largo, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$2,765	$2.74	3d	16	1.21mi
10244 Prince Pl Unit 21-103 Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,950	$1.82	26d	1	1.33mi
11304 Southlakes Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	1360	$3,100	$2.28	0d	1	1.34mi
10246 Prince Pl Apt 107 Largo, MD	3.0	2.0	1289	$2,300	$1.78	1d	1	1.35mi
10246 Prince Pl Unit 22-T4 Largo, MD	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,850	$1.73	7d	1	1.35mi
10122 Campus Way S Unit 202-1A Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.0	1082	$2,100	$1.94	14d	1	1.42mi
10703 Campus Way S Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.5	1376	$2,925	$2.13	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $276,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $276,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $300,000 Active 625-char remark
16. 2001-04-04
    soldstatus $145,000
17. 2001-03-28
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 2001-01-20
    historical
19. 2000-08-18
    listed $147,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,715 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,715 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$5,715
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,455
• − Management: −$2,455
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$6,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #8276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 51,816
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Two or more races 5% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 264.2372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+87.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $276,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MRIS
• 2001-01-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-08-18 Listed $147,500 MRIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,715 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.