2045 Willow Dr

East Marion, NY 11939

$1,895,000D-

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax + insurance: −$3,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,219
• Net cashflow: $-985/mo
• Annual: $-11,815/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $530,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $1.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-985 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.75M (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.53M (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $79k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $525k; list at $1.90M implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$128k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.