2045 Willow Dr · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,895,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · Land · 79 Days on market

Built 2025 0.93 ac lot $677/sqft · 15% above area Est $1652k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Luxury new construction set on approximately one acre in the heart of East Marion, built by a renowned local builder known for exceptional craftsmanship and attention to detail. Welcome to 2045 Willow Drive, a beautifully appointed 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath residence offering refined design and modern comfort throughout. The chef’s kitchen features custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and designer lighting, seamlessly opening to the main living area anchored by a gas fireplace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedroom suites provide comfort and privacy for residents and guests alike.  The semi-finished lower level offers approximately 1,500 additional square feet with 9-foot ceilings, an egress window, and electric with high-hat lighting already in place, presenting exceptional potential for future customization.  Outdoor living is elevated by a heated, saltwater in-ground pool with beige marble coping and patio area. The expansive backyard provides ample space for a future pool house, outdoor kitchen, or additional amenities. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, stone driveway with extra parking, and strong curb appeal.  Ideally located near local beaches, farm stands, vineyards, and dining, this property offers the best of North Fork living in a private, one-acre setting with low taxes.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• ONE ACRE
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-985 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.75M (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.53M (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $79k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$128k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $525k; list at $1.90M implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,533,079 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,651,683
• List price: $1,895,000
• Delta: 14.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $213,349
• Equity at exit: $902,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $790,247
• Equity at exit: $1,431,773

Cash invested: $530,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,369 /mo · $28,425/yr
• Insurance: −$790
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,219
• Net cashflow: $-985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,577

Max offer price $1,752,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $-330	+0% $-985	+5% $-1,639	+10% $-2,294
Rent	-10% $-2,196	-5% $-1,590	+0% $-985	+5% $-379	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-503	base $-985	+0.5pp $-1,476	+1.0pp $-1,975

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $473,750
• Closing costs: $56,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3600 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$16,000	$5.33	44d	1	0.21mi
1745 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	3.5	4000	$10,000	$2.50	44d	1	0.28mi
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	44d	1	0.31mi
580 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	3.5	2700	$35,000	$12.96	44d	1	0.51mi
11003 Main Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	3000	$15,000	$5.00	44d	1	0.64mi
525 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	3964	$6,000	$1.51	44d	1	0.67mi
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	44d	1	0.88mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	19d	1	1.16mi
165 Marine Pl Greenport, NY	4.0	4.5	3800	$20,000	$5.26	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-23
   price $1,895,000 1406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1406 chars)

   Luxury new construction set on approximately one acre in the heart of East Marion, built by a renowned local builder known for exceptional craftsmanship and attention to detail. Welcome to 2045 Willow Drive, a beautifully appointed 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath residence offering refined design and modern comfort throughout. The chef’s kitchen features custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and designer lighting, seamlessly opening to the main living area anchored by a gas fireplace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedroom suites provide comfort and privacy for residents and guests alike.  The semi-finished lower level offers approximately 1,500 additional square feet with 9-foot ceilings, an egress window, and electric with high-hat lighting already in place, presenting exceptional potential for future customization.  Outdoor living is elevated by a heated, saltwater in-ground pool with beige marble coping and patio area. The expansive backyard provides ample space for a future pool house, outdoor kitchen, or additional amenities. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, stone driveway with extra parking, and strong curb appeal.  Ideally located near local beaches, farm stands, vineyards, and dining, this property offers the best of North Fork living in a private, one-acre setting with low taxes.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $1,940,000 Active 1406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1406 chars)

   Luxury new construction set on approximately one acre in the heart of East Marion, built by a renowned local builder known for exceptional craftsmanship and attention to detail. Welcome to 2045 Willow Drive, a beautifully appointed 4 bedroom, 4.5 bath residence offering refined design and modern comfort throughout. The chef’s kitchen features custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and designer lighting, seamlessly opening to the main living area anchored by a gas fireplace, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Generously sized bedroom suites provide comfort and privacy for residents and guests alike.  The semi-finished lower level offers approximately 1,500 additional square feet with 9-foot ceilings, an egress window, and electric with high-hat lighting already in place, presenting exceptional potential for future customization.  Outdoor living is elevated by a heated, saltwater in-ground pool with beige marble coping and patio area. The expansive backyard provides ample space for a future pool house, outdoor kitchen, or additional amenities. Additional highlights include a spacious two-car garage, stone driveway with extra parking, and strong curb appeal.  Ideally located near local beaches, farm stands, vineyards, and dining, this property offers the best of North Fork living in a private, one-acre setting with low taxes.

3. 2025-12-03
   historical
4. 2025-10-07
   price $1,999,500
5. 2025-10-07
   price $1,999,500
6. 2025-08-27
   price $2,149,000
7. 2025-08-26
   price $2,149,000
8. 2025-07-14
   listed $2,249,000 Active
9. 2025-03-31
   price $2,249,000
10. 2025-01-27
    listed $2,395,000 Active
11. 2024-07-30
    historical
12. 2024-06-11
    listed $2,199,900 Active
13. 2023-12-12
    soldstatus $525,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,149
• − Property taxes: −$28,425
• − Insurance: −$9,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,718
• − Management: −$14,718
• − Depreciation: −$55,127
• Taxable loss: −$44,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+261.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $1,940,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $1,999,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $1,999,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $2,149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $2,149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listed $2,249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $2,249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Listed $2,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Listed $2,199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.