1017 Henry Clay St

Shelbyville, KY 40065

$115,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,426/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $442/mo
• Annual: $5,299/yr
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.46%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #560 of 676 statewide, top 83%, 423 students, 61% FRL); Shelby County West Middle School (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #175 of 217 statewide, top 81%, 600 students, 50% FRL); Martha Layne Collins High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 254 statewide, top 36%, 1,174 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen appliances — outdated and worn
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major: flooring — carpeted and worn
• Minor: interior paint — some discoloration