1017 Henry Clay St · Shelbyville, KY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $839 – $1,559
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Schools +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$115,000
1017 Henry Clay St · Shelbyville, KY 40065
3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily
· 120 Days on market
Garage
$90/sqft
· 48% below area
Est $222k · 48% under
↓ 11% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Great location! Downtown Shelbyville. Nice starter home or investment property. Near fire department, health department, stores and business offices. Nice front porch.
Key facts
- Listed 120 days
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
- Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Southside Elementary (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #560 of 676 statewide, top 83%, 423 students, 61% FRL); Shelby County West Middle School (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #175 of 217 statewide, top 81%, 600 students, 50% FRL); Martha Layne Collins High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 254 statewide, top 36%, 1,174 students, 44% FRL).
- Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$104,650
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.90%
- Cash-on-cash
- 16.46%
- DSCR
- 1.73
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $222,336
- List price
- $115,000
- Delta
- -48.28%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1016 High St | 0.25mi | 3/1.0 | 1,268 (-1%) | 2mo | $104,500 | $82 | 86 |
| 1013 Union St | 0.21mi | 3/1.5 | 1,350 (+6%) | 10mo | $151,900 | $113 | 70 |
| 196 Kentucky St | 0.31mi | 3/1.0 | 1,140 (-11%) | 3mo | $140,000 | $123 | 66 |
| 563 Hawthorne Ave | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 | 1,250 (-2%) | 10mo | $245,326 | $196 | 62 |
| 1308 Chestnut St | 0.48mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,330 (+4%) | 5mo | $180,000 | $135 | 62 |
| 204 Henry Clay St | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 | 1,244 (-2%) | 5mo | $227,500 | $183 | 59 |
| 129 Alton Rd | 0.38mi | 3/1.0 | 1,462 (+15%) | 2mo | $285,000 | $195 | 56 |
| 902 Brown Ave | 0.41mi | 3/1.0 | 1,137 (-11%) | 9mo | $200,000 | $176 | 55 |
| 925 Ashland Ave | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 | 1,382 (+8%) | 7mo | $202,000 | $146 | 50 |
| 81 Kavanaugh St | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,196 (-6%) | 11mo | $170,000 | $142 | 49 |
| 95 Smithfield Rd | 0.67mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,376 (+8%) | 11mo | $154,000 | $112 | 42 |
| 1017 Horse Shoe Dr | 0.72mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,200 (-6%) | 10mo | $234,000 | $195 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 7.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.29×
- Total profit
- $9,442
- Equity at exit
- $17,147
10-year hold
- IRR
- 16.8%
- Equity multiple
- 2.37×
- Total profit
- $44,248
- Equity at exit
- $9,943
Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Kentucky
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.
Seller's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 5 active · 9 under contract
- Months of supply
- 1.9 mo (53%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $209,900 ($185/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 67 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -5.7% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 40065
- Active inventory
- 394
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,426 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$603
- Tax from tax record
- −$34 /mo · $406/yr
- Insurance
- −$48
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$299
- Net cashflow
- $442
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$867
Max offer price
$115,000
Occupancy floor
64%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $507 | -5% $474 | +0% $442 | +5% $409 | +10% $376 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $329 | -5% $385 | +0% $442 | +5% $498 | +10% $554 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $499 | -0.5pp $471 | base $442 | +0.5pp $412 | +1.0pp $381 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,750
- Closing costs
- $3,450
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 11 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113 Ada Ave Shelbyville, KY | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1008 | $1,025 | $1.02 | 93d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 103 Martin Luther King Jr St Shelbyville, KY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 909 | $1,295 | $1.42 | 66d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 159 Gray Hill Ct Shelbyville, KY | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1050 | $895 | $0.85 | 11d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 149 Gray Hill Ct Shelbyville, KY | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1050 | $895 | $0.85 | 72d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 190 Benson Pike Unit 2 Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1650 | $1,395 | $0.85 | 17d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 1856 Blackwell Rd Unit 1858 Blackwell Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,695 | $1.54 | 93d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 1814 Oakwood Dr Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1050 | $1,599 | $1.52 | 93d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 122 Spencer Ct Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1547 | $1,940 | $1.25 | 93d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 121 Spencer Ct Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1135 | $1,695 | $1.49 | 66d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 5260 Dobson Ln Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1307 | $1,700 | $1.30 | 35d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 6041 Edgemont Way Shelbyville, KY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1489 | $2,325 | $1.56 | 93d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- No association fee listed
Exterior
- Parking
- No designated parking/garage
- Utilities
- Electricity connectedNatural gas available
- Home design
- Single-family ranch-style homeOne storyEntry and all main rooms on the first floor
- Construction
- Wood frame with aluminum sidingShingle roofCrawl space foundationBuilt year listed as 999 (verify)
- Exterior features
- Partial fencingSidewalksCleared lot
Interior
- Kitchen
- Kitchen on the first floor
- Bedrooms
- Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
- Bathrooms
- One full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Natural gas heating
- Interior features
- Five total roomsBasement: noneFirst-floor laundry
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry located on the first floor
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-07-31days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $115,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $115,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $115,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-11pricedays on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-05-08price $120,000 171-char remark
-
2026-04-01$129,500 Active 171-char remark
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $406 · $34/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $989 · $82/mo
- Expected delta
- +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 143.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,110
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,442
- − Property taxes
- −$406
- − Insurance
- −$575
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,369
- − Management
- −$1,369
- − Depreciation
- −$3,345
- Taxable income
- $3,604
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$865
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,434/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
45/100
Moderate rehab
Est. rehab $31,900–$57,420 screening
This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathroom, as well as the flooring and exterior paint. Upgrades in these areas would significantly enhance its resale and rental potential.
Components & finishes AI
Roof asphalt shingle · good
Flooring carpet
Deferred maintenance Est. $500–$2,000 screening
- Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear.
Repairs flagged
- Major kitchen appliances — outdated and worn
- Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
- Major flooring — carpeted and worn
- Minor interior paint — some discoloration
Value-add opportunities
- Resale update kitchen appliances — modern appliances improve appeal ↑
- Resale update bathroom fixtures — modern fixtures improve appeal ↑
- Both replace carpet — new flooring improves both resale and rental appeal ↑
- Both paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Southside Elementary
F
KY #560/676
Nat'l #33,016/41,679
Middle
Shelby County West Middle School
F
KY #175/217
Nat'l #9,979/14,009
High
Shelby County High School
F
KY #122/254
Nat'l #10,947/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Shelby County
- NCES district ID
- 2105320
- Math proficiency
- 26% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 37% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,163
- Composite
- 28.19/100
- National rank
- #6809
- State rank
- #77 of 165 in KY
B
Composite livability gradescore 75/100
Livability — Shelbyville
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #101
- US rank
- #4143
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime A
Employment B+
Housing A+
Health & safety B+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Shelbyville, KY
- County
- Shelby County · 52,947 people
- City population
- 32,160
- Metro
- Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
- Population (ZIP)
- 32,160
- Household income
- $77,869
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 52,947 people
- By 2030
- 56,624 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 63,983 · +20.8%
- By 2050
- 70,917 · +33.9%
- By 2075
- 87,345 · +65.0%
- By 2100
- 97,345 · +83.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Shelby
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+34.7) · D 31.8% · R 66.5% · Other 1.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -34.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+34.7 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -144.73%
- Current HPI
- 177.2875
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.81%
- F500 in state
- 4
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 1 | $118B |
|
||
| Food / Beverage | 1 | $7B |
|
||
Price history
-11.2% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-10 Price Changed $115,000 Metro Search MLS
- 2026-05-08 Price Changed $120,000 Metro Search MLS
- 2026-04-01 Listed $129,500 Metro Search MLS
Property tax history
+0.6%/yrLatest (2025): $406 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…