1017 Henry Clay St · Shelbyville, KY 40065

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Other · 77 Days on market

$94/sqft · 43% below area Est $209k · 43% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location! Downtown Shelbyville. Nice starter home or investment property. Near fire department, health department, stores and business offices. Nice front porch.

Key facts

• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.5% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.26%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,431
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -42.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,719
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $41,562
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40065

• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Ada Ave Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,025	$1.02	43d	1	0.25mi
103 Martin Luther King Jr St Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.0	909	$1,295	$1.42	17d	1	0.26mi
149 Gray Hill Ct Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.5	1050	$895	$0.85	23d	1	0.65mi
1569 Sanford Ln Shelbyville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,225	$1.20	1d	5	0.77mi
874 Marian Village Dr Shelbyville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1015	$1,475	$1.45	1d	4	0.98mi
1856 Blackwell Rd Unit 1858 Blackwell Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	43d	1	1.28mi
1814 Oakwood Dr Shelbyville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,599	$1.52	43d	1	1.34mi
122 Spencer Ct Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,940	$1.25	43d	1	1.36mi
121 Spencer Ct Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,695	$1.49	17d	1	1.37mi
6041 Edgemont Way Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,325	$1.56	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $120,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great location! Downtown Shelbyville. Nice starter home or investment property. Near fire department, health department, stores and business offices. Nice front porch.

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $129,500 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great location! Downtown Shelbyville. Nice starter home or investment property. Near fire department, health department, stores and business offices. Nice front porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 154.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$800
• After-tax cash flow: $4,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 2105320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,163
• Composite: 28.19/100
• National rank: #6809
• State rank: #77 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #4143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, KY
• County: Shelby County · 32,160 people
• City population: 32,160
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 32,160
• Household income: $77,869
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,947 people
• By 2030: 56,624 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 63,983 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 70,917 · +33.9%
• By 2075: 87,345 · +65.0%
• By 2100: 97,345 · +83.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.7) · D 31.8% · R 66.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -34.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.7 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.73%
• Current HPI: 177.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $120,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $406 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.