3740 E Bay St

Duluth, GA 30096

$280,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,677 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-344/mo
• Annual: $-4,130/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#55 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.