3740 E Bay St · Duluth, GA 30096

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,677 sqft · Townhouse public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1985 8,712 sqft lot $167/sqft · 17% above area Est $342k · 18% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold 'As is', HOA fees only $ 450 per annual. Closing attorney to be: Liu & Associates.

Key facts

• $38 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#55 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,081 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,127
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -18.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3740 Meeting St NW	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,597 (-5%)	14mo	$325,000	$204	74
3783 Meeting St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,816 (+8%)	14mo	$355,000	$195	73
3697 E Bay St	0.09mi	3/3.5	1,838 (+10%)	11mo	$347,000	$189	67
3677 Blackshear Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,536 (-8%)	7mo	$314,000	$204	66
3633 Chattahoochee Ct	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	18mo	$297,900	$186	65
3621 Chattahoochee Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,536 (-8%)	15mo	$300,000	$195	60
3801 Thayer Trce	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,580 (-6%)	1mo	$325,000	$206	55
3608 Stedman Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-11%)	13mo	$358,000	$240	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-73,280
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-115,160
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30096

• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,191/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,497

Max offer price $219,195

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Bradford Crk Trl NW Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1284	$2,013	$1.57	1d	16	0.20mi
3679 Blackshear Ct Duluth, GA	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,800	$1.17	43d	1	0.32mi
3655 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Duluth, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,686	$1.61	1d	7	0.34mi
3575 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1247	$2,042	$1.64	1d	19	0.48mi
3475 Pleasant Hill Rd Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1227	$1,950	$1.59	1d	19	0.51mi
4008 Sidney Lanier Blvd Duluth, GA	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,165	$1.53	1d	1	0.54mi
3700 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Duluth, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,610	$1.49	3d	7	0.56mi
3324 Benthollow Ln Duluth, GA	3.0	2.5	1958	$2,400	$1.23	24d	1	0.57mi
3582 Park Bluff Way Duluth, GA	4.0	3.0	2229	$2,800	$1.26	24d	1	0.58mi
3673 Willgrove Way Duluth, GA	3.0	2.5	2008	$2,400	$1.20	4d	1	0.62mi
3215 Hill St Duluth, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$3,308	$3.55	5d	15	0.90mi
3350 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$1,865	$1.64	1d	30	0.99mi
3250 Buford Hwy Duluth, GA	2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,194	$2.41	2d	26	1.01mi
4130 Plantation Trace Dr Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1424	$2,353	$1.65	1d	23	1.01mi
3512 Nutmeg Dr Duluth, GA	3.0	2.5	1542	$2,000	$1.30	15d	1	1.09mi
4400 Pleasant Hill Rd Duluth, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,128	$1.79	1d	16	1.10mi
3465 Duluth Hwy Duluth, GA	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,196	$2.49	1d	40	1.20mi
3036 Regal Park Ct Duluth, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	5d	1	1.22mi
3467 Highland Pine Way Duluth, GA	3.0	3.0	1236	$1,800	$1.46	12d	1	1.22mi
3467 Highland Pine Way Duluth, GA	3.0	2.5	1236	$1,800	$1.46	43d	1	1.22mi
3014 Majestic Park Ct Duluth, GA	2.0	2.5	1166	$2,000	$1.72	22d	1	1.24mi
3377 Montheath Pass Duluth, GA	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	24d	1	1.43mi
3351 Governors Ct Duluth, GA	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,500	$1.48	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $280,000 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Sold 'As is', HOA fees only $ 450 per annual. Closing attorney to be: Liu & Associates.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $300,000 Active 91-char remark

   Show marketing remark (91 chars)

   Sold 'As is', HOA fees only $ 450 per annual. Closing attorney to be: Liu & Associates.

3. 2018-03-22
   soldstatus $247,000
4. 2017-06-14
   soldstatus $178,000
5. 2017-06-09
   soldstatus $178,000 Sold 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

6. 2017-06-09
   soldstatus $178,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

7. 2017-05-04
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

8. 2017-05-04
   historical Contingent - Due Diligence 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

9. 2017-04-28
   listed $185,000 New

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

10. 2017-04-28
    listed $185,000 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Three-level townhome in Charleston Bay with four bedrooms and three full baths and one half-bath. Screened Porch / Deck overlooks park-like backyard (wooded). Family Room with fireplace. One car garage and driveway. Guest parking nearby. 2 inch blinds. Covered "Dry-Below Patio" - Gardener's Delight!!! Great Pool & Nature Trail!

11. 1988-04-29
    soldstatus $88,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,191
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$9,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #5316

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, GA
• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 118,608
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 71,732
• Household income: $74,656
• Rent vs Own: 57.0% rent · 43.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4726.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 29% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 23% Asian 18% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 5% Korean 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.92%
• Current HPI: 250.6589
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+215.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $280,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $300,000 FMLS
• 2018-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $247,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $178,000 GAMLS
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $178,000 FMLS
• 2017-05-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2017-05-04 Contingent — FMLS
• 2017-04-28 Listed $185,000 GAMLS
• 2017-04-28 Listed $185,000 FMLS
• 1988-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $88,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,191 · +41.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.