163 Thomas Trl

Lillington, NC 27546

$297,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-624/mo
• Annual: $-7,485/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $83,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (39.1% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillington-Shawtown Elementary (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Western Harnett Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 820 students, 57% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 51% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1217 active listings in the ZIP; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.