163 Thomas Trl · Lillington, NC 27546

$297,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $164/sqft · 11% below area Est $333k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Guilford in Leander Lee Preserve, a thoughtfully planned new home offering four bedrooms, two-and-a-half baths, and approximately 1,816 square feet of interior space on half an acre lot. This two-story plan features a flexible front space ideal for a home office or dining room, an open kitchen with walk-in pantry, and a spacious great room, while upstairs offers a convenient laundry room and private primary suite. Nestled in Leander Lee Preserve, residents enjoy spacious homesites and a peaceful Lillington setting just minutes from downtown, shopping, dining, recreation, and the scenic Cape Fear River.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 162 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillington-Shawtown Elementary (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Western Harnett Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #244 of 475 statewide, top 53%, 820 students, 57% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 51% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1217 active listings in the ZIP; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $180,859 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.00%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,002
• List price: $297,000
• Delta: -10.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 Bonnie Girl Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,043 (+12%)	6mo	$339,900	$166	66
55 Double Barrel St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,004 (+10%)	6mo	$295,000	$147	58
228 Double Barrel St	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,535 (-16%)	20mo	$299,900	$195	41
166 Coharie Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,567 (-14%)	2mo	$293,900	$188	33
110 Coharie Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-16%)	1mo	$293,900	$194	32
179 Coharie Dr	1.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-16%)	4mo	$294,900	$194	30
128 Coharie Dr	1.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-15%)	6mo	$294,900	$190	28
148 Coharie Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-16%)	12mo	$294,900	$194	23
159 Coharie Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-14%)	14mo	$299,000	$191	23
186 Coharie Dr	1.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (-14%)	15mo	$299,900	$192	22
206 Coharie Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-18%)	13mo	$279,900	$188	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-87,824
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-127,517
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $288,500 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 150 d
• This list price: 73% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27546

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 1217
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $206,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-418	-5% $-521	+0% $-624	+5% $-726	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-767	-5% $-695	+0% $-624	+5% $-552	+10% $-481
Rate	-1.0pp $-474	-0.5pp $-548	base $-624	+0.5pp $-701	+1.0pp $-779

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Leander Lee Preserve Homeowner AssociationAssociation fee $50 monthlyAssociation covers road maintenanceNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankSeptic connectedWater connectedUnderground utilitiesCable available
• Home design: Site-built propertyBi-level designBuilder model: Guilford BBuilding name: Guilford A
• Construction: Concrete and vinyl siding constructionConcrete slab foundationArchitectural shingle roofBuilt on 0.46-acre lot
• Exterior features: Public maintained road accessUnderground utilities availableCable available

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateLuxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Septic connectedWater connected

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $297,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $297,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $297,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $297,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $297,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $297,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $297,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $297,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $297,000 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $297,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $297,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $297,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $297,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $297,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $297,000 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $297,000 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $297,000 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $297,000 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $297,000 Active 137 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $297,000 Active 136 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $297,591 Active 135 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $297,591 Active 134 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $297,591 Active 133 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $297,591 Active 132 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $297,591 Active 131 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $297,591 Active 130 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $297,591 Active 129 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $297,591 Active 128 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $297,591 Active 127 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $297,591 Active 126 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $297,591 Active 124 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $297,591 Active 123 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $297,591 Active 122 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $297,591 Active 121 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $297,591 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $297,591 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $297,591 Active 118 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $297,591 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $297,591 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $297,591 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $297,591 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    pricedays on market $297,591 Active 113 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $296,710 Active 112 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $296,710 Active 111 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $296,710 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $296,710 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    remarks 624-char remark
48. 2026-07-27
    pricedays on marketlisting id $296,710 Active 104 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $296,731 Active 105 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $296,731 Active 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,455
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$12,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and value of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lillington-Shawtown Elementary F NC #1,073/1,410 Nat'l #29,439/41,679 Middle Western Harnett Middle F NC #244/475 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Western Harnett High C NC #245/535 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 153,758 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,419
• Household income: $66,746
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 198.2885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Leander Lee Preserve Homeowner AssociationAssociation fee $50 monthlyAssociation covers road maintenanceNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankSeptic connectedWater connectedUnderground utilitiesCable available
• Home design: Site-built propertyBi-level designBuilder model: Guilford BBuilding name: Guilford A
• Construction: Concrete and vinyl siding constructionConcrete slab foundationArchitectural shingle roofBuilt on 0.46-acre lot
• Exterior features: Public maintained road accessUnderground utilities availableCable available

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateLuxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Septic connectedWater connected

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $296,710 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Listed $296,731 TMLS