12 Willow Ct

Keene, NH 03431

$375,000C-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$877
• Net cashflow: $924/mo
• Annual: $11,090/yr
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $462/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#4 in NH, #192 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Keene School District (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #76 of 98 in NH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 194 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $375k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.1% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,175/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 716% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.