12 Willow Ct · Keene, NH 03431

$375,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1920 0.29 ac lot $206/sqft · 17% above area Est $322k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained two-family property in Keene offering excellent income potential and flexibility for both investors and owner-occupants. Each unit features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a walk-in pantry, living room, hardwired smoke alarms, and recessed lighting, along with separate utilities for efficiency and ease of management. Each unit also includes its own washer and dryer, adding convenience for tenants. Situated in a desirable in-town location, the property is within walking distance to downtown shopping, dining, and local amenities. The exterior offers a level, landscaped yard with a private feel, along with six off-street parking spaces. Recent improvements enhance efficiency and long-t

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Washer and dryer
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY PROPERTY
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• HARDWIRED SMOKE ALARMS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 2 units; Total finished living area approximately 1,820 (listing reported); Total building area approximately 4,140 (listing reported)
• Financial info: Operating expenses include heat, insurance, maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breaker(s); High-speed internet available
• Home design: Multi-family property; Existing structure; Built in 1920
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slate roof; Surveyed lot
• Exterior features: City lot, landscaped and level; Near trails, shopping, schools and in-town location; Gravel driveway; Curbside trash service (cans)

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit has an electric range and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two 3-bedroom units (one on the 1st floor, one on the 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank flooring; Wood flooring; Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired heating with radiators; No central air (no cooling)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement with interior access; Combination of vinyl plank and wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Each unit includes a washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $462/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $369k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#4 in NH, #192 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Keene School District (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #76 of 98 in NH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #219 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 194 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,175/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 716% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $375k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $369,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,854
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: 16.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Fowler St	0.37mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (+8%)	8mo	$330,000	$167	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-163
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $82,871
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03431

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,016/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$877
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,005

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 73%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,174
Total (2 units)			$4,175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Active 1628-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 1628-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $375,000 Active 1628-char remark
4. 1985-08-01
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,016 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,595 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,580/yr (+$215/mo · 85.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$3,016
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,008
• − Management: −$4,008
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $5,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $9,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keene School District
• NCES district ID: 3304050
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,158
• Composite: 31.62/100
• National rank: #5943
• State rank: #76 of 98 in NH

Livability — Keene

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #192

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keene, NH
• County: Cheshire County · 25,065 people
• City population: 25,065
• Metro: Keene, NH
• Population (ZIP): 25,065
• Household income: $79,541
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Cheshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,613 people
• By 2030: 72,495 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 66,778 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 60,963 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 49,511 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 39,687 · -46.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheshire

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.4% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+17.2 2016: D+12.6 2012: D+24.8 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.55%
• Current HPI: 387.6804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Keene, NH
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+535.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $375,000 PrimeMLS
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records