Dunham Plan

Hinesville, GA 31313

$281,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$600
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-344/mo
• Annual: $-4,129/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $79,778

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?