Dunham Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$281,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Good condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dunham floor plan is a fan favorite because of its modern layout. Enjoy classic details like a foyer entry and L-shaped kitchen with closet pantry, combined with open spaces such as the generous family room that opens in the dining area. Upstairs, the master suite boasts an over-sized walk-in closet, a spacious bathroom with dual vanity, garden tub and separate shower, plus a spacious bedroom with plenty of room to add a master sitting area. Three secondary bedrooms share a hall bath. Artistic rendering(s) are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Dining area
• Foyer entry

Tags

• FOYER ENTRY
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• CLOSET PANTRY
• GENEROUS FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• OVER-SIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $281,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,922.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,341 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,922
• List price: $281,900
• Delta: -1.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1063 Marne Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,931 (-4%)	7mo	$290,000	$150	63
76 Cohen Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	1,962 (-2%)	3mo	$299,000	$152	59
246 Boundary Hall Way	0.89mi	4/2.5	1,962 (-2%)	8mo	$295,400	$151	55
571 Rutledge Dr	1.01mi	4/2.0	1,877 (-6%)	10mo	$290,000	$155	44
258 Whipple Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-14%)	3mo	$290,000	$169	43
577 Rutledge Dr	1.02mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-4%)	17mo	$295,000	$154	42
73 Gambrell Rd	0.84mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,703 (-15%)	6mo	$254,999	$150	30
234 Bender St	0.94mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+20%)	5mo	$269,900	$112	29
309 Connor Ct	1.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,790 (-11%)	17mo	$274,000	$153	28
369 Rutledge Dr	0.93mi	4/2.5	2,283 (+14%)	17mo	$305,000	$134	27
528 Burke Dr	0.96mi	4/2.0	1,708 (-15%)	17mo	$282,500	$165	24
543 Rutledge Dr	1.00mi	4/2.0	1,605 (-20%)	17mo	$278,000	$173	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-62,357
• Equity at exit: $42,483

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,866
• Equity at exit: $24,635

Cash invested: $79,778 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,450 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $235,138

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-246	+0% $-344	+5% $-442	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-433	+0% $-344	+5% $-255	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-272	base $-344	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,230
• Closing costs: $8,548
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$1,995	$1.01	51d	1	0.11mi
326 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,150	$1.20	184d	1	0.11mi
247 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	1984	$2,100	$1.06	51d	1	0.13mi
184 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2090	$2,200	$1.05	10d	1	0.14mi
195 Courage Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	10d	1	0.14mi
170 Joann Lewis Ln Hinesville, GA	5.0	3.0	2023	$2,400	$1.19	10d	1	0.18mi
224 Whipple Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2437	$2,295	$0.94	10d	1	0.61mi
33 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,250	$1.10	1d	1	0.71mi
232 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2104	$2,050	$0.97	10d	1	0.71mi
227 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	5.0	3.0	2500	$2,500	$1.00	10d	1	0.72mi
34 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,200	$1.11	184d	1	0.73mi
200 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1963	$2,100	$1.07	10d	1	0.75mi
148 Gambrell Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1962	$2,170	$1.11	51d	1	0.80mi
248 Bender St Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1633	$1,995	$1.22	8d	1	0.89mi
141 Davila St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1693	$2,100	$1.24	10d	1	0.90mi
206 Farnsworth Trl Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2768	$2,600	$0.94	10d	1	0.91mi
403 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,000	$1.10	184d	1	0.97mi
409 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1587	$1,700	$1.07	51d	1	0.97mi
103 Fridley Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	2483	$2,500	$1.01	10d	1	0.97mi
115 Fridley Ln Hinesville, GA	5.0	3.0	2418	$2,400	$0.99	43d	1	0.98mi
88 Fridley Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,395	$1.14	10d	1	0.98mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1320	$2,013	$1.52	1d	6	1.06mi
200 Alcove Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,175	$1.30	10d	1	1.35mi
86 Hidden Hammock Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,450	$1.22	0d	1	1.37mi
454 Brightleaf Cir Hinesville, GA	5.0	3.0	2344	$2,450	$1.05	10d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $264,900Inventory type: Plan
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $30

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan homeLocated on Joann Lewis Ln, Hinesville, GA
• Construction: Living area approximately 2002 (plan)Built from standard residential construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Dunham)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $281,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $281,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $281,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $281,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $281,900 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $281,900 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $281,900 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $281,900 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $281,900 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $281,900 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $281,900 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $281,900 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $281,900 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $281,900 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $281,900 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $281,900 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $281,900 Active 143 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $281,900 Active 142 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $281,900 Active 141 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $281,900 Active 140 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $281,900 Active 139 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $281,900 Active 138 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $281,900 Active 137 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $281,900 Active 136 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $281,900 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $281,900 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $281,900 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $281,900 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $281,900 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $281,900 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $281,900 Active 129 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $281,900 Active 128 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $281,900 Active 127 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $281,900 Active 126 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $281,900 Active 125 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $281,900 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $281,900 Active 123 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $281,900 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $281,900 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $281,900 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $281,900 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $281,900 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $281,900 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $281,900 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $281,900 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $281,900 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $281,900 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $281,900 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $281,900 Active 111 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $281,900 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,960
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$2,927
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,289
• Taxable loss: −$9,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls and ceilings — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can improve energy efficiency and add value to the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Waldo Pafford Elementary School F GA #790/1,228 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Lewis Frasier Middle School F GA #271/470 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Bradwell Institute F GA #243/424 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $264,900Inventory type: Plan
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $30

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan homeLocated on Joann Lewis Ln, Hinesville, GA
• Construction: Living area approximately 2002 (plan)Built from standard residential construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (Dunham)