3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,820 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,767/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$184
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$371
Net cashflow
$169/mo
Annual
$2,022/yr
Cap rate
7.31%
Cash-on-cash
3.63%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.2% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $177k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lake Station Community Schools (suburban): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #278 of 301 in IN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Virgil I Bailey Elementary School (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #790 of 994 statewide, top 81%, 270 students, 84% FRL); Thomas A Edison Jr-Sr Hs (math 7% / reading 24%, grade F, #355 of 369 statewide, top 96%, 616 students, 76% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $42k; list at $199k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29