607 Simpson St

St. Paul, MN 55104

$274,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1904 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-769/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-769/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $275k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.