607 Simpson St · St. Paul, MN 55104

$274,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1904 3,702 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained Midway home with thoughtful updates throughout. Features include a spacious upper-level primary suite with private bath and great closet space and a main level that offers comfortable living and dining areas with updated flooring and a previously remodeled kitchen. Significant improvements include updated mechanicals with new furnace (2026), central A/C (2024), and newer water heater, along with multiple appliance updates. Recent interior updates include fresh paint, new bedroom flooring, and updated fixtures, giving the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. One room on the main floor provides access to the upper-level suite. Enjoy a new patio, extra off-street parking (up to 2 more cars), and a well-cared-for exterior. Conveniently located near Allianz Field, the Metro Green Line, and shops/restaurants along University Ave.

Key facts

• 3,702 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1904

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-781/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $275k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $225,660 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,819
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,301
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,500/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $263,400

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$3,428	$3.04	2d	7	0.90mi
150 Snelling Ave N St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$2,598	$3.51	2d	8	0.98mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $274,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $289,900 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained Midway home with thoughtful updates throughout. Features include a spacious upper-level primary suite with private bath and great closet space and a main level that offers comfortable living and dining areas with updated flooring and a previously remodeled kitchen. Significant improvements include updated mechanicals with new furnace (2026), central A/C (2024), and newer water heater, along with multiple appliance updates. Recent interior updates include fresh paint, new bedroom flooring, and updated fixtures, giving the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. One room on the main floor provides access to the upper-level suite. Enjoy a new patio, extra off-street parking (up to 2 more cars), and a well-cared-for exterior. Conveniently located near Allianz Field, the Metro Green Line, and shops/restaurants along University Ave.

15. 2026-04-02
    listed $300,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained Midway home with thoughtful updates throughout. Features include a spacious upper-level primary suite with private bath and great closet space and a main level that offers comfortable living and dining areas with updated flooring and a previously remodeled kitchen. Significant improvements include updated mechanicals with new furnace (2026), central A/C (2024), and newer water heater, along with multiple appliance updates. Recent interior updates include fresh paint, new bedroom flooring, and updated fixtures, giving the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. One room on the main floor provides access to the upper-level suite. Enjoy a new patio, extra off-street parking (up to 2 more cars), and a well-cared-for exterior. Conveniently located near Allianz Field, the Metro Green Line, and shops/restaurants along University Ave.

16. 2026-03-31
    historical $300,000 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained Midway home with thoughtful updates throughout. Features include a spacious upper-level primary suite with private bath and great closet space and a main level that offers comfortable living and dining areas with updated flooring and a previously remodeled kitchen. Significant improvements include updated mechanicals with new furnace (2026), central A/C (2024), and newer water heater, along with multiple appliance updates. Recent interior updates include fresh paint, new bedroom flooring, and updated fixtures, giving the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. One room on the main floor provides access to the upper-level suite. Enjoy a new patio, extra off-street parking (up to 2 more cars), and a well-cared-for exterior. Conveniently located near Allianz Field, the Metro Green Line, and shops/restaurants along University Ave.

17. 2002-11-04
    soldstatus $154,000
18. 2002-09-18
    soldstatus $154,000 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    THIS HOME IS SHARP! 1 1/2 STORY W/LARGE EXPANSION READY FOR YOUR DESIGN. HOME HAS BEEN RECENTLY REMODLED.INCLUDES NEWER CARPET, PAINT, FURNACE,AIR,DOORS, AND NEW APPLIANCES, YOU'LL LOVE THE PERENNIALS, APPLE&PEAR TREES,GRAPES AND MORE.LARE 3 SEASON PORCH.

19. 2002-08-22
    historical 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    THIS HOME IS SHARP! 1 1/2 STORY W/LARGE EXPANSION READY FOR YOUR DESIGN. HOME HAS BEEN RECENTLY REMODLED.INCLUDES NEWER CARPET, PAINT, FURNACE,AIR,DOORS, AND NEW APPLIANCES, YOU'LL LOVE THE PERENNIALS, APPLE&PEAR TREES,GRAPES AND MORE.LARE 3 SEASON PORCH.

20. 2002-08-07
    listed $159,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    THIS HOME IS SHARP! 1 1/2 STORY W/LARGE EXPANSION READY FOR YOUR DESIGN. HOME HAS BEEN RECENTLY REMODLED.INCLUDES NEWER CARPET, PAINT, FURNACE,AIR,DOORS, AND NEW APPLIANCES, YOU'LL LOVE THE PERENNIALS, APPLE&PEAR TREES,GRAPES AND MORE.LARE 3 SEASON PORCH.

21. 1995-01-13
    soldstatus $40,000
22. 1994-11-29
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,500 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,500 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$3,500
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$5,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,326
• After-tax cash flow: $544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+626.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-18 Sold (MLS) $154,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-07 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,500 · -21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.