2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
720 sqft ·
Built 1964
· Other
· Pending
· 107 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,090/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$726
Tax + insurance
−$188
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$229
Net cashflow
$-53/mo
Annual
$-631/yr
Cap rate
5.84%
Cash-on-cash
-1.63%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$38,780
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-631/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (6.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (21.3% below list).
It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#44 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Lennox School District 41-4 (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #5 of 59 in SD (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Worthing Elementary - 05 (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #39 of 253 statewide, top 19%, 126 students, 5% FRL); Lennox Jr. High - 08 (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #13 of 143 statewide, top 11%, 189 students, 15% FRL); Lennox High School - 01 (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #53 of 151 statewide, top 41%, 359 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lincoln County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29