2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,296 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,276/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$582
Tax + insurance
−$185
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$268
Net cashflow
$241/mo
Annual
$2,894/yr
Cap rate
8.90%
Cash-on-cash
9.31%
DSCR
1.41
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$31,080
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $111k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mesa Elementary (427 students, 0% FRL); W D Gattis Middle School (539 students, 100% FRL); Clovis High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #60 of 110 statewide, top 54%, 1,544 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 66% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and worn
Moderate: kitchen countertops
— dated and worn
Moderate: bathroom vanity
— dated and worn
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— dated and worn
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· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29