3076 Carron Rd

Festus, MO 63028

$70,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $571/mo
• Annual: $6,858/yr
• Cap rate: 16.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.99%
• DSCR: 2.56
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto 73 (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Athena Elem. (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 489 students, 45% FRL); Desoto Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 848 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.6% in Festus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.