3076 Carron Rd · Olympian Village, MO 63028

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2015 0.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this mobile home ready for a full renovation! Sitting on a spacious lot, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or anyone looking for a budget-friendly project. With the right vision and improvements, this home could be transformed into a comfortable residence or an income-producing rental. The structure needs significant repairs, making it an excellent blank canvas for customization. Whether you're planning a complete remodel or a fresh start, the location, lot size, and price point make this an unbeatable opportunity in today's market. Bring your tools, creativity, and ambition—the possibilities are endless! Priced to sell fast for those eager to b

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• Built 2015
• Listed 113 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level
• Construction: Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Back yard; Gentle sloping lot; Some trees

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#885 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Desoto 73 (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Athena Elem. (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 489 students, 45% FRL); Desoto Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 848 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.99%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $25,034
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $68,581
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63028

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $258/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $529

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $591	+0% $571	+5% $552	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $522	+0% $571	+5% $621	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $589	base $571	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $70,000 Active
17. 2026-02-24
    historical $70,000
18. 2024-09-18
    soldstatus
19. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus
20. 2014-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $258 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 162.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$258
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $5,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto 73
• NCES district ID: 2910500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,354
• Composite: 33.52/100
• National rank: #5434
• State rank: #153 of 324 in MO

Livability — Olympian Village

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #885
• US rank: #25396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 27,913

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.59%
• Current HPI: 219.9705
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Coming Soon $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $258 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.