20281 E Country Club Dr #207

Aventura, FL 33180

$595,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 328 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax + insurance: −$1,480
• HOA: −$2,418
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,483
• Net cashflow: $-1,438/mo
• Annual: $-17,259/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $166,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $595k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $595k).
• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $524k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $93k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $595k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,064/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 1838% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?