16911 Lagos Ln

Crosby, TX 77532

$239,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$678
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-364/mo
• Annual: $-4,366/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 9496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?