16911 Lagos Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$239,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 4,948 sqft lot $126/sqft · 10% below area Est $265k · 10% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a quiet street. With a spacious gameroom, high ceilings, and a convenient half bath downstairs, this property is perfect for entertaining guests. The primary bedroom downstairs offers a peaceful retreat from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

Key facts

• 4,948 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 9496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,956 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,403
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -9.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 Vilamoura Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-13%)	1mo	$203,700	$122	69
17122 Yeoman Way	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+6%)	2mo	$240,000	$119	68
16611 N Quadrant Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,081 (+9%)	1mo	$240,000	$115	67
17215 Morning Star Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+0%)	1mo	$234,900	$122	65
17123 Broken Back Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-12%)	0mo	$234,900	$140	62
17702 Craft Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,028 (+6%)	0mo	$260,000	$128	56
16338 Azimuth Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-7%)	1mo	$272,500	$154	54
710 Razee Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-10%)	2mo	$255,000	$149	52
1107 Cable Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-12%)	2mo	$219,900	$130	51
16911 Marlin Spike Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (-6%)	1mo	$314,990	$175	51
16843 Marlin Spike Way	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (-10%)	1mo	$249,900	$146	42
1814 Chart Dr Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,661 (-13%)	1mo	$269,900	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-59,556
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-86,644
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $242,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 88 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$578 /mo · $6,941/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,525

Max offer price $190,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-209	+0% $-277	+5% $-345	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-363	+0% $-277	+5% $-191	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-216	base $-277	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 Vilamoura Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,300	$1.00	12d	1	0.10mi
16807 Lisbon Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2196	$1,910	$0.87	93d	1	0.11mi
1310 Stem Way Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2346	$2,700	$1.15	52d	1	0.41mi
17110 Yeoman Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	2001	$2,036	$1.02	28d	1	0.42mi
16318 River Wood Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,946	$1.16	51d	1	0.63mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,625	$1.19	41d	1	0.69mi
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	93d	1	0.72mi
330 Harbor Mist Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$2,030	$0.91	30d	1	0.73mi
16823 S Lighthouse Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	37d	1	0.81mi
16835 S Lighthouse Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,795	$1.44	7d	1	0.81mi
16214 Port O Call St Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,399	$0.94	0d	1	0.97mi
16106 Broadwater Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$2,276	$1.19	20d	1	0.99mi
15806 Afore Dr Crosby, TX	4.0	2.0	2372	$1,951	$0.82	64d	1	1.23mi
15722 E Astern Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$1,896	$0.95	62d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $239,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $239,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $239,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,900 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 117 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 116 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 115 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 114 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 113 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 111 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 110 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 109 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 108 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 107 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 106 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 105 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 104 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 103 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,900 Active 98 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 96 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 95 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $240,000 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $248,500 Active 83 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,500 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,500 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,500 Active 78 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,500 Active 77 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,500 Active 76 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,500 Active 75 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,500 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,941 · $578/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$6,941
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$7,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and modern finishes. It's move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10944.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $248,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $254,500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed for Rent $2,050 HARMLS
• 2024-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Rental Removed $2,250 HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-08 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed for Rent $2,250 HARMLS
• 2023-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-04 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,941 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.