15607 NE Kelly Rd

Lake Marcel-Stillwater, WA 98019

$479,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $181/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $134,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $479k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($181/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $385k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Riverview School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #15 of 291 in WA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary (482 students, 20% FRL); Tolt Middle School (644 students, 20% FRL); Cedarcrest High School (943 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $120k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.3% in Lake Marcel-Stillwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.