15607 NE Kelly Rd · Lake Marcel-Stillwater, WA 98019

$479,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1993 5.12 ac lot Est $777k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional opportunity to build your dream home on this beautiful 5+ acre property featuring a private trout and steelhead pond and open, usable land surrounded by natural beauty. With its peaceful setting, water feature, and expansive acreage, this property offers a rare chance for builders, investors, or end users to create a private retreat or future residence in a highly desirable setting. Buyer to verify all building capabilities, zoning, and permitted uses to their satisfaction.

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Private retreat
• Usable land

Tags

• TROUT AND STEELHEAD POND
• USABLE LAND
• WATER FEATURE
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• PRIVATE RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 5.12 acres
• Financial info: Listing requires cash; Buyer brokerage compensation 2.5%

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water (see remarks); Septic tank sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured on land; Double wide; One story; Effective year built 1993; Facing direction: see remarks
• Construction: Built or effectively rebuilt 1993; Foundation details: see remarks; Roof: see remarks; Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Exterior and construction details: see remarks

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Forced air cooling; Electric energy source
• Interior features: One-level layout; Manufactured house (double wide)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($181/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $385k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.3% in Lake Marcel-Stillwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Riverview School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #15 of 291 in WA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary (482 students, 20% FRL); Tolt Middle School (644 students, 20% FRL); Cedarcrest High School (943 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $120k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $385,081 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $776,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32622 NE 147th St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+5%)	17mo	$815,000	$457	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-76,776
• Equity at exit: $71,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-66,092
• Equity at exit: $41,415

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98019

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,787/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,832

Max offer price $479,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $151	+0% $15	+5% $-121	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-137	+0% $15	+5% $167	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $137	base $15	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $479,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $479,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $599,000 Active
17. 2006-10-26
    soldstatus $345,000 Closed
18. 2006-10-26
    soldstatus $345,000
19. 2006-09-20
    historical
20. 2006-08-21
    listed $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,787 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,694 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$3,787
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,697
• − Management: −$3,697
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$8,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $2,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview School District
• NCES district ID: 5304560
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $100,574
• Composite: 63.41/100
• National rank: #1279
• State rank: #15 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Marcel-Stillwater

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 12,242
• Household income: $161,212
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.87%
• Current HPI: 343.3702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+66.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $599,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-26 Sold (MLS) $345,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-20 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-21 Listed $360,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,787 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.