419 Pennsylvania Ave

Waverly, NY 14892

$118,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 1867 · SingleFamily · Active · 452 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $144/mo
• Annual: $1,729/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 452 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Waverly Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #480 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1867 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 7767% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $118k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.6% in Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 452 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1867 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.