2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,128 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Condo
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,375/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$189
HOA
−$419
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$289
Net cashflow
$-41/mo
Annual
$-495/yr
Cap rate
5.79%
Cash-on-cash
-1.79%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$27,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $99k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-495/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (7.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Woodlake El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 655 students, 78% FRL); Henry Metzger Middle (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 953 students, 90% FRL); Karen Wagner H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 2,366 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 193 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29