1801 Briar Rd

Valparaiso, IN 46383

$189,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-474/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-474/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in IN, #1,149 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Valparaiso Community Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #18 of 301 in IN (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 542 units permitted in Porter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Porter County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $189k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Valparaiso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.