1093 Bear Creek Rd

Pinson, TN 38366

$175,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $473/mo
• Annual: $5,675/yr
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 433 students, 0% FRL); West-Bemis Middle School (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #252 of 333 statewide, top 76%, 373 students, 0% FRL); South Side High School (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #257 of 332 statewide, top 78%, 810 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $175k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.