1093 Bear Creek Rd · Pinson, TN 38366

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 2.00 ac lot Est $229k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent opportunity to own a move in ready 3-bedroom 1.5-bath home. This amazing property is in a beautiful location perfect for country living. The large backyard is a perfect area to entertain or to relax and enjoy the gorgeous views. The property has a large storage building 12x20 perfect for storing all your outdoor tools. Call today to get your private showing.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Spacious backyard
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• 12X20 STORAGE BUILDING
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 1 covered carport space; 2 open parking spaces; Open parking pad
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts)
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level home (1 story); Residential property
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Permanent foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Patio; Porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Gas starter fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 433 students, 0% FRL); West-Bemis Middle School (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #252 of 333 statewide, top 76%, 373 students, 0% FRL); South Side High School (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #257 of 332 statewide, top 78%, 810 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $175k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.58%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,038
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1093 Bear Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,294 (0%)	0mo	$154,000	$119	98
20 Ozier Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+2%)	4mo	$233,000	$177	74
1047 Bear Creek Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-15%)	14mo	$189,900	$173	49
938 Bear Creek Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+15%)	23mo	$265,000	$179	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $125,352
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.05×
• Total profit: $345,300
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38366

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $522	+0% $473	+5% $423	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $322	-5% $397	+0% $473	+5% $548	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $517	base $473	+0.5pp $428	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $175,000
3. 2026-05-05
   price $199,900
4. 2026-04-28
   price $205,000
5. 2026-04-27
   price $215,900
6. 2026-04-27
   price $219,900
7. 2026-04-23
   listed $229,900 Active
8. 2020-04-23
   soldstatus $105,000
9. 2020-04-22
   soldstatus $105,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Excellent opportunity to own a move in ready 3-bedroom 1.5-bath home. This amazing property is in a beautiful location perfect for country living. The large backyard is a perfect area to entertain or to relax and enjoy the gorgeous views. The property has a large storage building 12x20 perfect for storing all your outdoor tools. Call today to get your private showing.

10. 2020-03-12
    listed $105,000 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Excellent opportunity to own a move in ready 3-bedroom 1.5-bath home. This amazing property is in a beautiful location perfect for country living. The large backyard is a perfect area to entertain or to relax and enjoy the gorgeous views. The property has a large storage building 12x20 perfect for storing all your outdoor tools. Call today to get your private showing.

11. 2015-04-20
    soldstatus $83,000
12. 2010-12-02
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 125.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$706
• After-tax cash flow: $4,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pinson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinson, TN
• City population: 2,386
• Population (ZIP): 2,386

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 241.1757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+118.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $175,000 CWTAR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,900 CWTAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $205,000 CWTAR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $215,900 CWTAR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $219,900 CWTAR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $229,900 CWTAR
• 2020-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CWTAR
• 2020-03-12 Listed $105,000 CWTAR
• 2015-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.