Newberry Plan

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40023

$362,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,376 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,344
• Tax + insurance: −$745
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-719/mo
• Annual: $-8,629/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $125,159

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-719 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tully Elementary (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 788 students, 38% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 1,016 students, 46% FRL); Eastern High (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 2,036 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.