Newberry Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40023

$362,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,376 sqft · SingleFamily · 254 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newberry's open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry® keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining.

Key facts

• Gathering areas
• Spacious kitchen
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GATHERING AREAS

🏗️ New construction. The $362,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $460,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $363k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-813 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tully Elementary (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 788 students, 38% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 1,016 students, 46% FRL); Eastern High (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 2,036 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,000 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.57%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,616
• List price: $362,990
• Delta: -21.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19107 Catalpa Flds Pl	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,376 (0%)	2mo	$444,000	$187	94
18126 Catalpa Hills Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,376 (0%)	6mo	$386,345	$163	90
18116 Catalpa Hills Way	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,376 (0%)	2mo	$419,990	$177	89
18118 Catalpa Hills Way	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,376 (0%)	2mo	$421,350	$177	89
18124 Catalpa Hills Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,376 (0%)	7mo	$388,585	$164	88
18105 Catalpa Hills Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,426 (+2%)	10mo	$395,030	$163	87
Lot 169 Catalpa Hills Way	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,376 (0%)	7mo	$394,990	$166	86
19103 Catalpa Fields Pl	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+12%)	5mo	$449,990	$169	67
18125 Catalpa Hills Way	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+12%)	6mo	$418,410	$157	64
18117 Catalpa Hills Way	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+12%)	9mo	$460,320	$173	63
Lot 179	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+12%)	9mo	$465,000	$175	62
2210 White Oak Way	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,483 (+4%)	7mo	$864,400	$348	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-126,388
• Equity at exit: $68,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-176,566
• Equity at exit: $39,826

Cash invested: $128,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $406,990 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 455 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40023

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$576 /mo · $6,909/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,029

Max offer price $342,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-495	-5% $-654	+0% $-813	+5% $-972	+10% $-1,132
Rent	-10% $-1,050	-5% $-932	+0% $-813	+5% $-695	+10% $-576
Rate	-1.0pp $-581	-0.5pp $-696	base $-813	+0.5pp $-933	+1.0pp $-1,054

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,154
• Closing costs: $13,818
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3222 Catalpa Farms Dr Fisherville, KY	3.0	2.5	2004	$3,000	$1.50	120d	1	0.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18102 Catalpa Hills Way, Fisherville KY 40023Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $362,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Newberry)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,376 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Newberry (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-25
   days on market $362,990 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $362,990 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-09-23
   days on market $362,990 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-09-22
   days on market $362,990 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-09-21
   days on market $362,990 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-09-20
   days on market $362,990 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-09-19
   days on market $362,990 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-09-18
   days on market $362,990 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-09-17
   days on market $362,990 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-09-16
    days on market $362,990 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-09-15
    days on market $362,990 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    days on market $362,990 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $362,990 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $362,990 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $362,990 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $362,990 Active 234 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $362,990 Active 233 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $362,990 Active 232 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $362,990 Active 229 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $362,990 Active 228 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $362,990 Active 227 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $362,990 Active 226 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $362,990 Active 225 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $362,990 Active 223 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $362,990 Active 222 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $362,990 Active 221 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $362,990 Active 220 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $362,990 Active 219 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $362,990 Active 218 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $362,990 Active 217 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $362,990 Active 216 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $362,990 Active 215 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $362,990 Active 214 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $362,990 Active 213 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $362,990 Active 212 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $362,990 Active 211 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $362,990 Active 210 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $362,990 Active 209 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $362,990 Active 208 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $362,990 Active 207 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $362,990 Active 206 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $362,990 Active 205 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $362,990 Active 204 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $362,990 Active 203 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $362,990 Active 202 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $362,990 Active 201 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $362,990 Active 198 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $362,990 Active 196 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $362,990 Active 195 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $362,990 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,802
• − Property taxes: −$6,909
• − Insurance: −$2,303
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$13,400
• Taxable loss: −$18,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,362
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,880–$35,640 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and replacing the ceiling fan.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Improves air circulation and comfort ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tully Elementary F KY #178/676 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Carrithers Middle F KY #197/217 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Jeffersontown High F KY #222/254 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson · 823,112 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 6,484
• Household income: $135,863
• Rent vs Own: 2.9% rent · 97.1% own

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.35%
• Current HPI: 227.4205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 18102 Catalpa Hills Way, Fisherville KY 40023Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $362,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Newberry)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,376 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Newberry (new construction)