1620 River Rd

Gang Mills, NY 14858

$178,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-293/mo
• Annual: $-3,519/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (32.8% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#532 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Corning City School District (town): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #406 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erwin Valley Elementary School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 373 students, 33% FRL); Corning-Painted Post Middle School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 962 students, 46% FRL); Corning-Painted Post High School (math 93% / reading 98%, grade A+, #82 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,463 students, 36% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Corning City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $178k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.