1620 River Rd · Gang Mills, NY 14858

$178,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2022 11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Lindley, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers ~1,400 sq ft of brand-new construction. A rare opportunity to finalize a modern retreat, the property features fully operational utilities, including well and septic systems. Designed for efficiency with freeze-protected plumbing, the functional layout provides a perfect canvas for your personal style.

Key facts

• 11 acre lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Assessed value listed; Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Residential multi-use zoning
• Exterior features: Wooded property; Irregular, residential lot; Right-of-way road frontage; See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Interior features: Single-story layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#532 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Corning City School District (town): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #406 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erwin Valley Elementary School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 373 students, 33% FRL); Corning-Painted Post Middle School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 962 students, 46% FRL); Corning-Painted Post High School (math 93% / reading 98%, grade A+, #82 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,463 students, 36% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Corning City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $178k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,565 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $26,726
• Equity at exit: $105,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $95,086
• Equity at exit: $186,035

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14858

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,763/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $126,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-243	+0% $-293	+5% $-344	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-340	+0% $-293	+5% $-246	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-204	-0.5pp $-248	base $-293	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $178,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $178,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $178,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $178,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $188,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    price $188,000 361-char remark
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,900 Active 361-char remark
20. 2018-01-18
    soldstatus $47,000
21. 2017-05-24
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,885 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,763
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$6,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning City School District
• NCES district ID: 3608400
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,042
• Composite: 41.8/100
• National rank: #3392
• State rank: #406 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gang Mills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #9596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,086
• Population (ZIP): 1,405

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.43%
• Current HPI: 259.0652
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+304.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $178,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $188,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,763 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.