The Poppy Plan

Vance, AL 35490

$244,400D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 611 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,349
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-408/mo
• Annual: $-4,902/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $72,024

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-408 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 611 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 611 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.