The Poppy Plan · Vance, AL 35490

$244,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily · 611 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 611 days

🏗️ New construction. The $244,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,229.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-408 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 611 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,315 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 611 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,229
• List price: $244,400
• Delta: -4.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18608 Caffee Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,281 (0%)	10mo	$234,750	$183	88
18668 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	8mo	$234,900	$185	80
18573 Caffee Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,281 (0%)	14mo	$229,750	$179	80
18638 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,281 (0%)	10mo	$234,400	$183	80
18661 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	10mo	$244,900	$193	79
18723 Caffee Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	3mo	$239,900	$189	78
18650 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	11mo	$244,650	$192	78
18705 Caffee Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	5mo	$244,900	$193	77
18637 Caffee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	14mo	$242,400	$191	73
10801 Vance Blocton Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+3%)	9mo	$185,000	$140	63
18626 Caffee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+13%)	8mo	$244,900	$170	55
18274 Mahaffey Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-14%)	7mo	$224,500	$204	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $114,105
• Equity at exit: $231,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $356,529
• Equity at exit: $499,739

Cash invested: $72,024 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,349
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,858/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $198,124

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-320	+0% $-408	+5% $-497	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-545	-5% $-477	+0% $-408	+5% $-340	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-279	-0.5pp $-343	base $-408	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,307
• Closing costs: $7,717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	23d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,400 Active 611 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,400 Active 608 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,400 Active 607 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,400 Active 606 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,400 Active 605 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,400 Active 603 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,400 Active 602 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,400 Active 600 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,400 Active 599 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,400 Active 598 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,400 Active 597 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,400 Active 594 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,400 Active 593 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,400 Active 592 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,400 Active 591 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,400 Active 590 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,400 Active 589 DOM
18. 2026-01-27
    price $244,400 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

19. 2025-07-02
    price $239,400 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

20. 2025-01-08
    price $236,900 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

21. 2024-11-26
    price $231,900 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

22. 2024-11-13
    price $229,400 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

23. 2024-10-24
    price $226,900 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

24. 2024-10-18
    listed $236,900 Active 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful Poppy Plan, a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and featuring a single car garage. As you walk down the hallway, you'll be delighted by the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The first bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience superior quality materials and workmanship throughout the home, showcasing meticulous attention to detail and backed by a one-year builders' warranty. Your new home also comes with our smart home technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. With these advanced amenities, the Poppy Plan promises a seamless and luxurious living experience. Take the next step and make the Poppy your new home today - you won't regret it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,409
• − Property taxes: −$3,858
• − Insurance: −$1,286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$7,483
• Taxable loss: −$9,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $244,400 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $239,400 Zillow
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $236,900 Zillow
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $231,900 Zillow
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $229,400 Zillow
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $226,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-18 Listed $236,900 Zillow