The Aria Plan

Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$299,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,770/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,735
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-955/mo
• Annual: $-11,455/yr
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $92,637

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-955 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (41.0% below list).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.