The Aria Plan · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Aria, a new home at Hodges Bayou Plantation in Southport, Florida. This plan has three bedrooms, two full bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the covered entry where you will find a bright foyer leading into the optimized living space designed with open concept kitchen overlooking the living area, dining room, and covered back patio. You'll notice the beautiful EVP flooring throughout the main areas and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The heart of this home includes the spacious kitchen that features granite countertops, center island and a walk-in pantry with ample storage space. The living and dining areas offer a comfortable space for family and guests. Enjoy your covered patio that is accessible from the dining area that has room for a dining table or outdoor seating area. The primary suite is located in the rear of the home creating a split floor plan that features ample space for a king-sized bedroom suite. The walk-in closet is located within the main suite and has all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The primary bathroom has a dual granite sink vanity, a separate shower, separate soaking tub, enclosed toilet for extra privacy and linen closet. There are two additional bedrooms that have large closet spaces and share a full bath. This home also features a laundry room with space for a full-size washer and dryer. These homes come equipped with a Home is Connected® smart home technology package including QOLSYS IQ Panel, Skybel

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 235 days

🏗️ New construction. The $299,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,847.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-955 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,999 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,847
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -9.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3119 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$162	91
3131 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	1mo	$296,900	$175	91
3124 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	2mo	$289,900	$171	90
3132 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	3mo	$299,900	$177	90
3127 Sawgrass St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,697 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$177	88
3127 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (+2%)	1mo	$279,900	$163	82
3120 Breezy Bay Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (+2%)	3mo	$309,900	$180	80
3123 Sawgrass St	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (+2%)	0mo	$284,900	$165	80
7199 Big Buck Blvd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	1mo	$324,900	$181	72
3390 Rachel Pl	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	1mo	$324,900	$181	70
7219 Big Buck Blvd	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	1mo	$333,685	$185	69
3702 Tippecanoe Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+8%)	1mo	$599,000	$328	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $98,860
• Equity at exit: $276,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $334,748
• Equity at exit: $573,633

Cash invested: $92,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,735
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,963/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,978

Max offer price $192,718

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-726	-5% $-840	+0% $-955	+5% $-1,069	+10% $-1,183
Rent	-10% $-1,094	-5% $-1,024	+0% $-955	+5% $-885	+10% $-815
Rate	-1.0pp $-788	-0.5pp $-870	base $-955	+0.5pp $-1,040	+1.0pp $-1,128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,712
• Closing costs: $9,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,900 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-02-03
    price $299,900 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Welcome to the Aria, a new home at Hodges Bayou Plantation in Southport, Florida. This plan has three bedrooms, two full bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the covered entry where you will find a bright foyer leading into the optimized living space designed with open concept kitchen overlooking the living area, dining room, and covered back patio. You'll notice the beautiful EVP flooring throughout the main areas and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The heart of this home includes the spacious kitchen that features granite countertops, center island and a walk-in pantry with ample storage space. The living and dining areas offer a comfortable space for family and guests. Enjoy your covered patio that is accessible from the dining area that has room for a dining table or outdoor seating area. The primary suite is located in the rear of the home creating a split floor plan that features ample space for a king-sized bedroom suite. The walk-in closet is located within the main suite and has all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The primary bathroom has a dual granite sink vanity, a separate shower, separate soaking tub, enclosed toilet for extra privacy and linen closet. There are two additional bedrooms that have large closet spaces and share a full bath. This home also features a laundry room with space for a full-size washer and dryer. These homes come equipped with a Home is Connected® smart home technology package including QOLSYS IQ Panel, Skybel

20. 2025-10-29
    listed $327,900 Active 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Welcome to the Aria, a new home at Hodges Bayou Plantation in Southport, Florida. This plan has three bedrooms, two full bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the covered entry where you will find a bright foyer leading into the optimized living space designed with open concept kitchen overlooking the living area, dining room, and covered back patio. You'll notice the beautiful EVP flooring throughout the main areas and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The heart of this home includes the spacious kitchen that features granite countertops, center island and a walk-in pantry with ample storage space. The living and dining areas offer a comfortable space for family and guests. Enjoy your covered patio that is accessible from the dining area that has room for a dining table or outdoor seating area. The primary suite is located in the rear of the home creating a split floor plan that features ample space for a king-sized bedroom suite. The walk-in closet is located within the main suite and has all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The primary bathroom has a dual granite sink vanity, a separate shower, separate soaking tub, enclosed toilet for extra privacy and linen closet. There are two additional bedrooms that have large closet spaces and share a full bath. This home also features a laundry room with space for a full-size washer and dryer. These homes come equipped with a Home is Connected® smart home technology package including QOLSYS IQ Panel, Skybel

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,533
• − Property taxes: −$4,963
• − Insurance: −$2,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$9,625
• Taxable loss: −$17,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Listed $327,900 Zillow