416 Wilson Ave

Mason, TX 76856

$159,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-438/mo
• Annual: $-5,260/yr
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (43.3% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#662 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mason ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #76 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mason County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.