416 Wilson Ave · Mason, TX 76856

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1980 0.28 ac lot $147/sqft · 47% below area Est $301k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Small on living space, but spacious corner lot and affordable. 3/2 with split bedroom arrangement. CA/CH. Gas cook stove and gas hot water heater. Needs some interior kitchen updating and flooring, exterior paint and possibly new roof shingles. Could be a starter home or rental investment.

Key facts

• Gas hot water heater
• Corner lot
• Gas cook stove

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GAS COOK STOVE
• GAS HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family contemporary residence; Single story; Zoned R-1; Located in the Wheeler subdivision
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Slab foundation; Built with composition roofing
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Level lot; Public maintained road; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas oven; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (43.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#662 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mason ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #76 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Mason County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,464 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,207
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -46.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
804 S Avenue F	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	16mo	$218,900	$195	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,554
• Equity at exit: $86,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $42,734
• Equity at exit: $147,164

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76856

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,994/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $82,464

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-348	-5% $-393	+0% $-438	+5% $-484	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-474	+0% $-438	+5% $-403	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-358	-0.5pp $-398	base $-438	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $159,900 Active 290-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,994 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,994 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,994
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$870
• − Management: −$870
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$8,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mason ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829280
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,797
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1898
• State rank: #76 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mason

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #12456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mason, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,525

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,979 people
• By 2030: 3,930 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 3,836 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 3,838 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 4,230 · +6.3%
• By 2100: 4,260 · +7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 17.2% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+60.1 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Current HPI: 206.7593
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $159,900 CHCMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,994 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.