3750 Paradise Rd #100

Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93105

$84,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $1,430/mo
• Annual: $17,162/yr
• Cap rate: 27.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.43%
• DSCR: 4.40
• 1% rule: 3.13%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Santa Ynez Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 172 students, 54% FRL); Santa Ynez Valley Union High (847 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the College Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.