3750 Paradise Rd #100 · Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93105

$84,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tranquil Environment. Mountain, River, Lake Retreat. Hiking. Your own Santa Ynez Valley Oasis, while beautiful Santa Barbara City is only 25 minutes. Affordable get-away 1bed/1 bath cabin (manufactured home) is located in Rancho Oso camping grounds. Can be lived in 210 days a year - not rented. Access to 2 swimming pools (One is Heated), hot tub, horseback rental peridocially. Country store, recreation/lounging building. Renewable yearly lease includes water, sewer and trash. Check w/ Office on site for all Fees. Transfer thru DMV. Freshly painted with newer vinyl topped plank flooring. This is only (1) of a few private manufactured homes up there at Rancho Los Osos that can be purchased. C

Key facts

• Country store
• Hot tub
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RIVER LAKE RETREAT
• ACCESS TO SWIMMING POOLS
• HOT TUB
• HORSEBACK RIDING GUIDED TOURS
• COUNTRY STORE
• RECREATION LOUNGING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near El Gaucho Road cross street; Views include mountains and scenic setting; Lot characteristics: level, mountain, rural; Zoning: other
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with pool and play area; Association fee includes water

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer: other
• Home design: Cabin-style property; Single story; One building; Property faces a natural/mountain setting
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Other foundation; Other structures include stables and a ranch office
• Exterior features: Hot tub; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas stove
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Good condition; Dining area in the kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry not in-unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,480 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.43%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $77,663
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $185,683
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93105

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $1,430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,488	-5% $1,459	+0% $1,430	+5% $1,401	+10% $1,372
Rent	-10% $1,222	-5% $1,326	+0% $1,430	+5% $1,534	+10% $1,638
Rate	-1.0pp $1,472	-0.5pp $1,452	base $1,430	+0.5pp $1,408	+1.0pp $1,386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $84,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    status Active
18. 2026-04-25
    historical
19. 2026-04-21
    price $99,000
20. 2026-04-15
    listed $120,000 Active
21. 2021-08-17
    historical
22. 2021-07-06
    status Active
23. 2021-07-02
    status Pending
24. 2021-07-01
    historical
25. 2021-06-02
    listed $89,999 Active
26. 2021-03-26
    historical
27. 2020-09-25
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$1,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $16,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,051
• After-tax cash flow: $13,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with fresh paint and newer flooring. It offers a tranquil environment with access to amenities and a swimming pool. Minor improvements can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Upgrading air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Upgrading air conditioning unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0609330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,496
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #2919
• State rank: #234 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Eastern Goleta Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 34,619
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,437
• Household income: $138,286
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1436.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 3% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -793.90%
• Current HPI: 335.4294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,000 SBMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $120,000 SBMLS
• 2021-08-17 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2021-07-06 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2021-07-02 Pending — SBMLS
• 2021-07-01 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2021-06-02 Listed $89,999 SBMLS
• 2021-03-26 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $105,000 SBMLS