4153 County Road 5

Kinston, AL 36453

$170,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,568 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-663/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#382 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.