4153 County Road 5 · Kinston, AL 36453

$170,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1996 0.94 ac lot $66/sqft · 33% below area Est $246k · 31% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor or Fixer Upper look no further! 2,504 SqFt - 4 Bedroom/2 Full Baths This property already has the space, barns, & potential to be an incredible home. Slab throughout and good bones! - 2 Barns (48x30 & 30x18) - Concrete slab in both. - 0.94 Acre lot. - Open kitchen/dining. - POTENTIAL Some renovations are already in motion and just need a new owner to take over! Super neat piece of property and home. New survey on file.

Key facts

• Concrete slab
• 0.94 acre lot
• Open kitchen dining

Tags

• 2 BARNS
• CONCRETE SLAB
• 0.94 ACRE LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#382 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,501 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,237
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -30.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,400
• Equity at exit: $76,966

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $66,212
• Equity at exit: $119,025

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36453

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $160,238

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-02-17
    price $162,000 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Investor or Fixer Upper look no further! 2,504 SqFt - 4 Bedroom/2 Full Baths This property already has the space, barns, & potential to be an incredible home. Slab throughout and good bones! - 2 Barns (48x30 & 30x18) - Concrete slab in both. - 0.94 Acre lot. - Open kitchen/dining. - POTENTIAL Some renovations are already in motion and just need a new owner to take over! Super neat piece of property and home. New survey on file.

18. 2026-01-23
    listed $170,000 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    Investor or Fixer Upper look no further! 2,504 SqFt - 4 Bedroom/2 Full Baths This property already has the space, barns, & potential to be an incredible home. Slab throughout and good bones! - 2 Barns (48x30 & 30x18) - Concrete slab in both. - 0.94 Acre lot. - Open kitchen/dining. - POTENTIAL Some renovations are already in motion and just need a new owner to take over! Super neat piece of property and home. New survey on file.

19. 2026-01-22
    listed $170,000 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    Investor or Fixer Upper look no further! 2,504 SqFt - 4 Bedroom/2 Full Baths This property already has the space, barns, & potential to be an incredible home. Slab throughout and good bones! - 2 Barns (48x30 & 30x18) - Concrete slab in both. - 0.94 Acre lot. - Open kitchen/dining. - POTENTIAL Some renovations are already in motion and just need a new owner to take over! Super neat piece of property and home. New survey on file.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneva County
• NCES district ID: 0101660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,144
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6325
• State rank: #39 of 129 in AL

Livability — Kinston

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #21820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,593

Population outlook (Geneva County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,614 people
• By 2030: 26,346 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 25,491 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 24,280 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 20,914 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 16,830 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geneva

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 11.2% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.4 2012: R+63.0 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Current HPI: 131.8057
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $162,000 WBR
• 2026-01-23 Listed $170,000 SAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $170,000 WBR

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.