854 Jenkins St

Blackshear, GA 31516

$145,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1906 · SingleFamily · Pending · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-373/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackshear Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #364 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 812 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County Middle School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #64 of 470 statewide, top 14%, 827 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County High School (math 44% / reading 60%, grade D+, #26 of 424 statewide, top 6%, 1,033 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.