854 Jenkins St · Blackshear, GA 31516

$145,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1906 0.69 ac lot $102/sqft · 28% below area Est $200k · 28% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Large family room
• Formal living room

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND FRONT PORCH
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackshear Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #364 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 812 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County Middle School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #64 of 470 statewide, top 14%, 827 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County High School (math 44% / reading 60%, grade D+, #26 of 424 statewide, top 6%, 1,033 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,686 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,058
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -27.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Leisure Ln	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	12mo	$199,900	$139	72
830 Jane St	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,293 (-9%)	5mo	$200,000	$155	70
106 Pinehurst Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$97	67
711 Chapman St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-4%)	10mo	$237,500	$175	67
110 Fawn Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+0%)	8mo	$184,000	$129	62
129 Blackbear Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-7%)	7mo	$175,000	$132	62
1157 Tanner Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-1%)	4mo	$244,000	$174	59
222 Edgewood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-6%)	4mo	$259,000	$194	51
548 Pinehurst Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+14%)	14mo	$255,000	$158	49
230 Taylor Cir	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,215 (-14%)	13mo	$175,000	$144	46
1130 Tanner Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-4%)	19mo	$218,000	$161	44
1118 Tanner Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-9%)	14mo	$200,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-25,476
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-24,740
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31516

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,774/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $139,516

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $10	+0% $-31	+5% $-72	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-78	+0% $-31	+5% $16	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $6	base $-31	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $145,000 Pending 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-03-28
   status Active 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

7. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

8. 2026-03-09
   price $145,000 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

9. 2025-12-17
   status Active 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

10. 2025-12-02
    historical 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

11. 2025-07-24
    status Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

12. 2025-07-18
    historical Active Under Contract 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

13. 2025-06-13
    listed $155,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    This 1906 beauty creates a truly unique living experience featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths a large family room, formal dining and formal living room. Whether you’re drawn to its charming features, its spacious rooms, or the peaceful lifestyle it offers, this home is a rare find. A highlight of this stunning home is the expansive, wrap-around front porch, perfect for sipping sweet tea on warm summer evenings or hosting friends and family for outdoor gatherings. The spacious living room offers a cozy retreat, while the large family room provides a perfect spot for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,774
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blackshear

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #9915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blackshear, GA
• City population: 15,465
• Population (ZIP): 15,465

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 259.8612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Relisted — GIAR
• 2026-03-23 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $145,000 GIAR
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — GIAR
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — GIAR
• 2025-07-18 Contingent — GIAR
• 2025-06-13 Listed $155,000 GIAR

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,774 · +116.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.