None bd · None ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1948
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$15,594/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,231
Tax + insurance
−$1,662
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,275
Net cashflow
$5,426/mo
Annual
$65,109/yr
Cap rate
12.82%
Cash-on-cash
23.31%
DSCR
2.04
1% rule
1.56%
Cash to close
$279,300
Investor read
This is a multifamily listed at $998k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $998k).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($968k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $968k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $102k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $15,594/mo this rent would consume 258% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1458% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Signs of wear and potential leaks
Major: exterior siding
— Worn and peeling
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt
CashFlowRE · CFR-CY53QZ41B68XB4
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29