4916 Robert Ave

St. Louis, MO 63109

$415,000F

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,854 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,240/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-1,595/mo
• Annual: $-19,144/yr
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.47%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (67.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (70.1% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $124k (70.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Adams Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 174 students, 98% FRL); Beaumont Cte High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 236 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $415k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.