4916 Robert Ave · St. Louis, MO 63109

$415,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,854 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1925 9,861 sqft lot $108/sqft · 10% below area Est $459k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.6/30.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and thoughtfully updated 4-family in the heart of Princeton Heights, located on a quiet residential street surrounded by predominantly single-family homes. This property offers a rare combination of strong rental appeal and owner-occupant potential. All four units are spacious 1-bedroom, 1-bath layouts with both 2nd floor units offering an additional small room suitable for an office. All feature functional floor plans (not shotgun), bright rooms with abundant natural light, large living areas, and original hardwood floors throughout. Kitchens offer generous eat-in space, abundant cabinet storage, pantries, and ceramic tile flooring, with brand-new stainless steel appliances

Key facts

• 9,861 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1925

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total of 4 units in the property

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Residential income property (2–4 units); Apartment building (1 building, multi-unit)
• Construction: Brick exterior; Apartment building structure
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Lot of approximately 0.226 acres; Located in the Princeton Heights neighborhood

Interior

• Bedrooms: All units are 1-bedroom
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Apartment building with multiple units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (67.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (70.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (70.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Adams Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 174 students, 98% FRL); Beaumont Cte High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 236 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $415k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,965 (70.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.47%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 27.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $458,826
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -9.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5944 Loughborough Ave	0.62mi	3/3.0 (+1)	3,528 (-8%)	4mo	$539,000	$153	45
7112 Jamieson Ave	0.56mi	3/3.0 (+1)	3,332 (-14%)	15mo	$500,000	$150	30
6273 Printz Ave	0.64mi	3/3.0 (+1)	3,362 (-13%)	14mo	$225,000	$67	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-167,781
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-272,425
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63109

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 27.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-1,595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,259

Max offer price $133,181

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,360	-5% $-1,478	+0% $-1,595	+5% $-1,713	+10% $-1,830
Rent	-10% $-1,693	-5% $-1,644	+0% $-1,595	+5% $-1,546	+10% $-1,497
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,386	-0.5pp $-1,490	base $-1,595	+0.5pp $-1,703	+1.0pp $-1,812

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5812 Sunshine Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	3400	$1,125	$0.33	44d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1279-char remark
2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Under Contract 1279-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $415,000 Active 1279-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   historical $415,000 1279-char remark
5. 2011-06-17
   soldstatus
6. 1999-12-13
   soldstatus $119,998
7. 1991-04-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,321/yr (+$110/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$27,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,236
• Household income: $69,938
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 922.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.58%
• Current HPI: 250.5412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+245.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $415,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $415,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $119,998 Public Records
• 1991-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,705 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.